Free resources / Retail Promotion & Trade Spend Break-Even Calculator
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How many more units must you sell to make that retail promotion worthwhile? Model the funded discount, extra allowances, and fixed fees against your normal contribution.
Example scenario · Prepared
Live scenario
Defaults are illustrative USD assumptions. Replace them with your product costs, actual quote, and commercial plan.
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All amounts are USD. Contribution is brand invoice less entered variable costs and funding, before overhead and tax. The model applies the same regular wholesale price and ongoing trade reserve to both scenarios, then subtracts brand-funded discount and any extra allowance on every promoted unit. The shelf price is wholesale ÷ (1 − retail margin). The fixed fee applies only to the promotion. Required units round up; lift uses the unrounded threshold. Scan-back funding assumes promoted sell-through equals the brand units modeled. Off-invoice funding assumes all modeled units receive the discount. Inventory loading, redemption rates, returns, cannibalization, post-promotion dips, payment timing, and unentered deductions can change the result.
Compare the same stores and time window. Normal contribution equals baseline units multiplied by normal contribution per unit. Promoted contribution equals promoted units multiplied by the contribution left after promotion funding, less fixed promotion fees.
Required promoted units = (normal contribution + fixed promo fees) ÷ promo contribution per unit.
Required volume lift = (required promoted units ÷ baseline units − 1) × 100.
With $5 wholesale, $2 COGS, and no other entered costs, you keep $3 per regular unit. A fully funded 20% off-invoice discount leaves $2. If normal volume is 500 units per store during the promotion window, you need 750 units per store to preserve the same $1,500 contribution. A fee or extra scan allowance pushes that threshold higher.
Compare expected sales without the promotion with promoted sales for the same period. Adjust your baseline for distribution and seasonality before interpreting lift. NIQ’s trade-promotion measurement guide discusses incremental sales and measuring outcomes. The arithmetic here models your assumptions; it does not predict shopper behavior.
Divide normal contribution plus fixed promotion fees by promoted contribution per unit. Compare the required units with baseline units for the same stores and time window. Required lift = (required units ÷ baseline units − 1) × 100.
At $5 wholesale and $2 COGS, normal contribution is $3. A fully brand-funded 20% wholesale discount removes $1, leaving $2. You need 3 ÷ 2 = 1.5 times normal units, or 50% more, before any extra fees. This is an example, not a typical retailer requirement.
No. Revenue can grow while contribution falls. This calculator compares contribution dollars after entered costs and trade funding. The target is to recover normal contribution, not merely to cover the promotion fee.
The off-invoice option calculates the discount against wholesale price. The scan-back option calculates the shelf discount against the regular shelf price implied by retailer margin. Your funding share controls how much the brand pays. Enter any additional per-unit allowance separately.
No. If each promoted unit contributes zero or a loss, increasing volume cannot recover positive baseline contribution or fixed fees. The calculator shows Not achievable rather than an invented lift target.
Yes. Print or save a PDF summary and download the assumptions and results as a CSV. Calculation and exports require no signup.
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